From Hindsight to Foresight: Applying Futures Research Techniques in Information Systems

From Hindsight to Foresight: Applying Futures Research Techniques in Information Systems

POND-Hindsight: Applying Hindsight Optimization to POMDPs

We present the POND-Hindsight entry in the POMDP track of the 2011 IPPC. Similar to successful past entrants (such as FF-Replan and FF-Hindsight) in the MDP tracks of the IPPC, we sample action observations (similar to how FFReplan samples action outcomes) and guide the construction of policy trajectories with a conformant (as opposed to classical) planning heuristic. We employ a number of tech...

Why hindsight can damage foresight

WHAT IS HINDSIGHT BIAS? In 1972, President Richard Nixon made a historic trip to China, which had become virtually a closed country following the 1949 revolution. There was intense speculation on what Nixon might achieve. In a now-famous study, Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth (1975) asked their students to estimate probabilities for events relating to his visit. An example: “The USA will establ...

Information Systems Innovation Research: Between Novel Futures and Durable Presents

In this paper, I argue that we should not only orient ourselves to the future by looking forward to the yet unrealized. When researching the future, we should also develop a sensibility to the durability of our past and present creations, and understand how they impact the scope for future innovations. The common emphasis on the visionary and novel components of innovation needs to be complemen...

[Applying molecular biology techniques to ophthalmologic research].

EDITORIAL At present there are over 990 registered hereditary diseases involving only the eye or in the context of a disease involving other organs (1). Aniri-dia, primary congenital glaucoma, retinoblastoma, Leber's neuropathy or uveal melanoma are but a few examples. In some cases, the involvement is attributed to a mutation in a specific gene; in others, it is related to changes in different...